Use of Obama's $66 million August donations

So I have been thinking about what the best use of the $66 million in donations Obama recorded in August would be. Is it smear campaigns? Derogatory ads? Or is there another way to spend it that would influence votes more? Let's forget the ethical and legal ramifications for a minute (I will address those in a minute). But what if Obama distributed some of this money to constituents - essentially bought people's vote?

So first of all, I tried to think about logistics and how much money that would mean if distributed to a certain group of people (also to be discussed in a minute). If we take just the amount of money he recorded in August of $66 million and assumed the total voting population is the same as it was in 2004 (just over 62 million votes), we can see below the amount of money that could be distributed, how many people that would effect and the percent of the total voting population.

$1,000 - 66,000 people - 0.1% of vote
$500 - 132,000 people - 0.2% of vote
$250 - 264,000 people - 0.4% of vote
$100 - 660,000 people - 1.1% of vote
$10 - 6,600,000 people - 10.6% of vote

So we can see, based on 62 million voters, that to really influence a large portion of the vote (greater than 1% in my mind, which means 1% more for one candidate and 1% less for another, essentially a 2% swing), you would only be able to distribute $100 to each person. Or $250 per person if you wanted only a 0.8% swing. The question is whether people would be willing to cast their vote for someone (no matter how they felt about that person) for $100 or $250?

Let's say the answer is yes, that there are large groups of people in the US that would be happy to sell their vote for $100. Their view may be that their vote doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things anyhow, or that no matter who they vote for, $100 in cash is more than any benefit they might accrue in the future based upon that person's leadership. Is 1-2% of the popular vote enough to sway things? I would say yes. For Gore that likely would have been the deciding factor, especially if these 660,000 votes are strategically bought, i.e. in a swing state or two where this would guarantee a victory.

One consideration, however, would be the opportunity cost. Where would the candidate have spent the $66 million otherwise and are potential voters lost as a result? For example, does it mean one less campaign trip because the cost of the charter plane was borne by the $66 million? Or perhaps one less TV ad to combat a claim made by the opposition?

So let's talk legal. I certainly have no idea about campaign rules, but would assume a candidate can not simply cut checks or give cash to constituents. This would be the way to do it if it was not illegal as everyone prefers cash. But what about giving out gift cards at rallies or in the mail? While you are certainly not guaranteed to get the person's vote, I would say you would influence a large number of people. So give out 660,000 gift cards to Walmart or Target for $100. Would this be legal? I don't know, though there has to be a point where you could provide something tangible to constituents to get their vote. Candidates provide rides to the poles which is a benefit. So even if providing gift cards would be illegal, there has to be something that could be provided that would influence a vote - something between providing a ride and giving out cash.

Is this ethical? I am sure my ethics professor in grad school (whom I hated and fought with daily, and who walks by my house in Cleveland Heights with his wife all the time, with me wishing I had a little bb gun) would say absolutely not. But why not? How is it any different than Bed, Bath and Beyond sending out their 20% coupons each week to influence you to shop there vs. Target?

So the question I pondered this morning when I was awake at 4:30 am was how much would a candidate have to pay me to vote for them if I was not going to vote for them anyhow? $100? No. $1000? Not likely but depended on how desperate I was. $10,000? They would have my vote. But there are a whole lot of people in this world who are less well off than I that would do it for a whole lot less.